DECISION MAKING IN DEEP UNCERTAINTY

Sharing our recent article for Environmental Science and Policy: Climate policy decision-making in contexts of deep uncertainty (Workman, M.H.W., Darch, G., Dooley, K., Lomax, G., Maltby, J. and Pollitt, H., 2021). 

From the paper:

Integrated assessment models are often used to evaluate the role of different technologies in meeting global climate goals. Such models have been criticised for failing to address the deep uncertainties and plurality of values that are fundamental to energy transitions. One consequence is that model scenarios overwhelmingly depend on large-scale carbon dioxide removal to hold warming to below 2 °C.

Here we propose an alternative approach using Scenario-Focused Decision Analysis (SFDA) as methods that embrace decision making under deep uncertainty. SFDA can accommodate a range of value sets and perspectives, and most importantly can integrate value-based decision-making in designing climate policy. We specifically consider Robust Decision Making (RDM) as an exemplar of SFDA for developing climate policy.

Read in full