GRANTHAM BRIEFING: FUTURES ANALYSIS

This month sees the publication of our Grantham Briefing Paper: Using futures analysis to develop resilient climate change mitigation strategies (Gambir. A., Cronin, C., Matsumae, E., Rogelj, J., and Workman, M.H.W., 2019). 

From the paper:

Communities producing mitigation analysis should consider a far greater range of political, economic, technological, social and environmental possibilities than they currently do, to secure the resilience of our climate mitigation strategies.

Futures analysis methods such as qualitative scenarios, expert judgements, simulation and agent-based models, and even science fiction narratives should be used more frequently to complement the modelling approaches most commonly used.

Robust decision making and other scenario discovery approaches can be used to identify those mitigation strategies most resilient to the many plausible outcomes produced by our expanded methods and imaginations.

Read the full paper