Decision Making and Strategy Under Uncertainty

The world is becoming increasingly complex. Making strategy in such turbulent and uncertain futures requires the drawing upon of different tools such as scenario analysis, robust decision making, game theory, and integrated assessment modelling. These are being developed and implemented in a highly fragmented manner within and across sectors.

Foresight Transitions develops a holistic, multi-disciplinary, and end-to-end perspective to decision-making under uncertainty. The work seeks to develop learning across sectors and disciplines with a view to highlighting areas for future capacity development and collaboration between academic-industry and policy partners to address better understanding across domains and sectors.

The most recent evolution of this work is the creation of the Analysis under Uncertainty for Decision Makers, please see

Downloads: Research Papers

Gambir. A., Cronin, C., Matsumae, E., Rogelj, J., and Workman, M.H.W., 2019.
Using futures analysis to develop resilient climate change mitigation strategies.
Grantham Briefing Paper No 33 with the Climate Works Foundation.

Contributing Author 2019-21 for Working Group II (assesses the Impacts of Climate Change) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Sixth Assessment Report (WGII AR6) Chapter 17: Decision-making options for managing risk.

Kruitwagen, L., Madani, K., Darch, G., Workman, M.H.W., et al., 2017.
Decision Making under Uncertainty White Paper.

Kruitwagen, L. and Workman, M.H.W., 2016.
Decision Making under Uncertainty Workshop Report Summary.

Madani, K., Darch, G., Parra, F., and Workman, M.H.W., 2015.
Using Game Theory to Address Modern Resource Management Problems.
Grantham Policy Note No.2.

Workman, M.H.W., 2013
DCDC Technology Review for Shale Gas, CCS, and Energy Storage. Contribution to MOD Global Strategic Trends Programme: Global Strategic Trends—Out to 2045. 5th Edition. Based on Landscaping exercise on International Emissions Abatement Opportunities in UK, US, China, Japan, India and Germany which can be found on this link.

Links: Research Papers and Conferences

Oasis Loss Modelling Framework Conference – The good, the bad and the ugly, 2nd July 2020
Complex Systems, Modelling, Decision Making Under Uncertainty Session.
Presentation to the Insurance Sector on Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Lessons from the Security and Energy Sector.  

Considerable intellectual effort has been focused in managing uncertainty in decision making. This has tended to be centered on the development of increasingly sophisticated and opaque parametric decision support tools.

It is argued that this allocation of resources is miss-guided. To improve the quality of decision making under uncertainty there is a need to develop a culture under which:

  • Learning to live with uncertainty is embraced and the appropriate tools and processes applied;
  • The role of institutional, anthropological, ontological and psychological issues are given greater prominence; and
  • Recognition that decision making under uncertainty is a competency requiring training.

Kruitwagen, L., Madani, K., Caldecott, B., and Workman, M.H.W., 2016.
Game Theory and Corporate Governance: Conditions for Effective Stewardship of Companies Exposed to Climate Change Risks.
Journal of Sustainable Finance and Investment.

Other Downloads

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For inquiries regarding future collaboration please get in contact with Mark.